Muristek
The United States is threatening Russia with sanctions on at least two tracks, for Britain, all options are on the table, and a key concern in NATO is Europe's energy security.
This is the balance of yesterday's comments in the United States and Europe over the accumulation of between 100,000 and 130,000 Russian troops near Ukraine and concerns about a possible invasion, which was also described in London as “very likely”.
At the same time, Moscow, which has strongly denied wanting a war, has asked Washington for more explanations on how its security concerns over Ukraine and NATO activity will be addressed.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told Fox News yesterday that an attack on Ukraine could happen “really, frankly, at any moment.”
Today, the issue is to be discussed at the UN Security Council, where, at the request of the United States, Russia must explain the build-up of forces near Ukraine. However, observers have reservations that talking about the crisis in Ukraine in this format could do little to resolve the conflict.
"We can't have a second moment like in Munich"
A panel in the US Senate is on track to approve a package already described as the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia.
“We can't allow a second moment like in Munich,” said Bob Menendez, who heads the foreign policy committee. “Putin will not stop if he believes that the West will not respond. We saw what he did in 2008 in Georgia, we saw what he did in 2014 in Crimea. He will not stop.”
Menendez refers to the 1938 Munich Agreement, which handed over the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia to Germany in an attempt to “pacify” Nazi Germany and Adolf Hitler in order to avoid further military action. This analogy has been used many times in the West by supporters of a tougher approach against Russia.
He described to CNN in an interview with fellow Senate Democrat James Risch of Wisconsin, “the incredible bipartisan determination to support Ukraine” and the intention to punish Moscow with serious consequences if it attacks. “We are building on the legislation that Senator Risch and I both wrote independently of each other, which I called the mother of all sanctions.”
According to him, this includes measures against Russian banks, a blow to the economy and the sovereign debt. “These are sanctions that go beyond anything we've imposed so far.” He and Risch made it clear that the measures are still being worked on in search of unanimity on when and how to impose them.
A blow to Europe
According to the New York Times, meanwhile, sanctions against Russia prepared by President Joe Biden's administration would cause severe inflation, market crashes and other forms of financial panic that would severely affect Russians and Russian daily life.
Analysts say that sanctions (which Biden admitted as a possibility earlier this month) could affect other leading economies, especially those in Europe, and even threaten the stability of the global financial system. Cyber-attacks against Europe and the United States and a deepening energy crisis may follow. On the other hand, this would mess with the plans of Russian President Vladimir Putin, because inciting social tensions over the blow to the daily lives of Russians who will blame him for their problems.
After the Crimean sanctions in 2014, Russia did not experience a major shock and even managed to strengthen some sectors of its economy, but according to US officials, the blow to the foundations of the financial system and access to critical technology would be incomparable.
Moscow would suffer the most from the attack on state-owned banks and the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which also has Western representatives on board. In practice, foreign elites around the world will have to stop working with these banks with a devastating effect on Russian companies. This, together with measures such as limited access to credit, could raise prices in Russia - for food, for clothing, could lead to a devaluation of pensions from the collapse of the ruble. Unofficial lists circulating in Washington have included SberBank, where most Russians have mortgages, and VTB, the country's two leading banks. However, it is not known whether the decision of the administration will not be for measures against other, smaller banks, or against those, but on a smaller scale - for example, only against their investment units.
The European Central Bank has already expressed concern about the situation and turned to Russian banks to warn of the risks of US sanctions.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss explained that London currently does not rule out any options for sanctions, including against the property of Russian oligarchs in elite neighborhoods of the capital. Yesterday, Britain, which announced it was sending fighter jets to Bulgaria, called it “very likely” that Russia planned to invade Ukraine.
Concerns about energy security
Yesterday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on behalf of the alliance that his members agreed on the need to diversify supplies - a need clearly demonstrated by both the risks of conflict and the current energy crisis in Europe.
“We are concerned about the energy situation in Europe because it shows the vulnerability of being overly dependent on one natural gas supplier. That is why NATO allies agree that we need to work and focus on diversifying supplies,” said Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary-General of NATO
At the same time, the unity that Stoltenberg is talking about has been called into question by Hungary's decision to hold gas talks with Russia this week.
About a third of gas supplies to the European Union depend on Russia. The United States and Germany said last week that a gas pipeline considered in Berlin to be key to energy security - the Nord Stream 2, built but not operating - could be a bet on tensions with Moscow. The pipeline is awaiting approval from German and European regulators, and in the case of Germany, recent reports have signaled that the pipeline will not be operational soon.
Today, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, will be in the United States to discuss the possibility (limited - according to some sources) of a wealthy Gulf monarchy diverting gas to Europe through the United States.
He offered to help Europe and Australia.
Russia has demanded more explanations
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced that Russia wants NATO to clarify exactly how key security commitments will be implemented, for which Washington made written proposals to Moscow last week. According to the first diplomat, the alliance's responses to Russia's demands have not gone far enough.
“If they do not intend to do so, then they must explain why,” Lavrov said in a statement broadcast on television. “This will be a key issue to determine our future proposals.”
“Now they say Russia is threatening Ukraine - that's completely ridiculous. We don't want a war, we don't need one at all," said Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia
The United States has previously said it is awaiting Russia's response to the answers in a US letter regarding Russia's security concerns. The White House and the State Department have flatly rejected two key demands by Moscow: the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe and the closure of the alliance's door to Ukraine.
In an interview with El Pais over the weekend, Stoltenberg explained that NATO (which also sent proposals to Russia along with the United States) offered talks on issues such as arms control, nuclear and missile arsenals, transparency in military maneuvers, better political and military communication. “But we are not ready to compromise on our fundamental principles of European security.” /Dnevnik
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