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News-Press columnist Arthur Cyr addresses Santa Barbara audience, says today’s challenges are more economic than military DAVE MASON / NEWS-PRESS PHOTOSDr. Arthur Cyr, director of the Clausen Center at Carthage College in Kenosha, Wisc., was in Santa Barbara Monday to give a talk about Asia.
When it comes to Asia, the news is good for Americans, according to Arthur Cyr, a global issues expert and author.
“The geostrategic situation has changed such that we no longer worry about military dimensions,” Dr. Cyr, the director of the Clausen Center at Carthage College in Kenosha, Wisc., told the Channel City Club and Committee on Foreign Relations during a brunch Monday morning at the Hilton Santa Barbara Beachfront Resort.
But “we end up worrying a lot about China,” said the Clausen distinguished professor and author, who writes a weekly global issues column for the Voices section in the Santa Barbara News-Press Weekend.
Dr. Cyr, a UCLA graduate and former president of the Chicago World Trade Center, told the large audience that despite being “technically the No. 2 economy in the world,” China falls behind Japan in terms of actual economic power, when population numbers are taken into consideration.
And Dr. Cyr, the former vice president of the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, said he doesn’t believe China is the serious threat that many politicians and media outlets contend it is. He also said he believes the U.S. and its military remain an effective deterrent to China invading Taiwan, which China still regards as “a renegade province.”
Dr. Arthur Cyr delivers words of optimism during a brunch for the Channel City Club and the Committee on Foreign Relations at the Hilton Santa Barbara Beachfront Resort.“China is not an aggressive nation,” Dr. Cyr said.
He also noted that Taiwan in recent decades has greatly increased its lobbying in Congress to maintain its influence in Washington, D.C.
The last time Americans fought Chinese troops directly was during the Korean War.
“Despite the world’s problems in Ukraine, North Korea and elsewhere — and some of you may disagree with me — the threats we face are mostly commercial and industrial, not military,” said Dr. Arthur Cyr.During the Vietnam War, China provided military support to North Vietnam but did not send troops and withdrew its military support in 1968.
While saying another war is possible in Asia, Dr. Cyr said he would be very surprised if that war involved China.
He expressed confidence in today’s American military forces. “Should conventional war break out in Asia or elsewhere, we can feel reasonably secure that we will be able to perform effectively.”
He also said, “If God forbid we (the U.S.) go into a war, the nuclear threshold is much smaller today than it was after World War II and through much of the Cold War.”
“Despite the world’s problems in Ukraine, North Korea and elsewhere — and some of you may disagree with me — the threats we face are mostly commercial and industrial, not military,” Dr. Cyr said.
He noted Cambodia today has a growing economy and that Vietnam and Laos both have stock markets.
Dr. Cyr discussed the history of Southeast Asia, beginning in the 1950s. He praised President Harry Truman for making the courageous decision to defend South Korea.
He noted the Eisenhower administration considered using nuclear weapons. The Joint Chiefs of Staff discussed it, but President Dwight Eisenhower told them, “You boys must be out of your mind!” The president warned that in light of Hiroshima, using nuclear weapons for the second time against Asians would lead the U.S. to lose the Cold War.
Dr. Cyr also discussed foreign policy and the televised 1960 debate between presidential candidates (and future presidents) John F. Kennedy and RIchard M. Nixon.
Pam Herzog directs the Montecito Union School Sixth Grade Chorus during its performance following Dr. Arthur Cyr’s talk.“They were two extraordinarily intelligent and talented, persuasive, quite young politicians talking at length about policy,” Dr. Cyr said.
“Nixon looks resentful and irritable because Nixon often looked that way,” Dr. Cyr said. “This debate was supposed to be about domestic affairs, but Kennedy unashamedly kept bringing up the Soviet Union.
“The Soviet Union was an enormous threat. Communism was a serious threat back then,” Dr. Cyr said. “There were persuasive reasons why the U.S. was in Vietnam.”
He said President Lyndon Johnson agreed with his Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara about the need to be in Vietnam because of the risk of communism spreading into Indonesia.
Today, Dr. Cyr said, Southeast Asia is a different place. And he noted that while diplomatic summits have a lot of public relations fluff, they do lead to cooperation among nations, which have built on that momentum since the end of the Cold War. He noted that President Joe Biden recently met with Chinese President Xi JInping.
After Dr. Cyr’s talk, he answered questions from the audience. The program’s emcee was Erin Graffy.
After Dr. Cyr’s talk, Monday’s luncheon ended on a holiday note with Christmas songs performed by the Montecito Union School Sixth Grade Chorus.
email: dmason@newspress.com
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